Doha negotiations on agriculture and future of the WTO multilateral Trade System

The WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations was launched in 2001 and after twelve years of negotiations members seem unable to bring it to a successful conclusion. The agreement on an "early harvest" of deliverables at the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali in December 2013 may give some renewed momentum, but the prospects for success appear uncertain. This paper describes the stage that the negotiations have reached in agriculture and summarises the most recent draft modalities for agricultural trade liberalisation. It surveys recent estimates of the value of what is currently on the table. It discusses the reasons for the current impasse in the negotiations and asks whether agricultural trade liberalisation would be better served by abandoning the Doha Round. The paper argues that this would not be the case, and concludes by speculating on the minimum conditions necessary to ensure a conclusion to the Round.