Dynamic Analysis of British Demand for Tourism Abroad

This paper investigates how preference endogeneity, in the form of habit persistence, can affect short-run and long-run tourism expenditure decisions. The proposed model is applied to British quarterly data over the period 1979-91 and the empirical results suggest that preference endogeneity appears to have an important effect. This has policy implications for countries competing for British tourist arrivals. The differences between the short-run and long-run price and budget elasticities which are implied by habit persistence are also investigated. Key words: Preference endogeneity, demand for tourism, habit persistence