Dynamic interactions between public finances and economic activity in Germany : time series perspectives on the sustainability, cyclicality, sensitivity and economic impact of fiscal policy

Christoph Priesmeier

Wie interagieren öffentliche Finanzen und Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland? Und welchen Einfluss haben diese Interaktionen auf die Tragfähigkeit der deutschen Staatsfinanzen? Und umgekehrt, welche Rolle spielen Tragfähigkeitsaspekte für die Effektivität von staatlichen Konjunkturprogrammen?Dieses Buch bietet empirisch fundierte Beiträge zu Fragen, die durch die Staatschuldenkrise in den Fokus finanzwissenschaftlicher Diskussionen gerückt sind. Konkret zeigt der Autor - unter Einsatz moderner makroökonometrischer Verfahren - warum es einer Schuldenbremse bedarf, um die aus einer Ausgabendynamik resultierende Tragfähigkeitslücke in Deutschland zu schließen. Er findet bei Gewinnsteuerelastizitäten starke Schwankungen über den Zeitablauf. Und schließlich demonstriert er, dass Konjunkturprogramme während der letzten Jahrzehnte zunehmend prozyklischer wirkten und Tragfähigkeitsrestriktionen die Höhe von Fiskalmultiplikatoren erheblich beeinflussen.

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Year of publication:	2014 ; 1. Aufl.
Authors:	Priesmeier, Christoph
Publisher:	Baden-Baden : Nomos Verl.-Ges.
Subject:	Öffentliche Finanzen \| Public finance \| Nachhaltigkeit \| Sustainability \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Wagnersches Gesetz \| Wagner's law \| Steuereinnahmen \| Tax revenue \| Elastizität \| Elasticity \| Finanzpolitik \| Fiscal policy \| Multiplikator \| Multiplier \| Dynamische Wirtschaftstheorie \| Economic dynamics \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Deutschland \| Germany \| Wirtschaftsentwicklung

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Extent:	157 S. graph. Darst.
Series:	Neue Studien zur politischen Ökonomie ; 14
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Hochschulschrift ; Thesis ; Sammlung ; Collection of articles written by one author
Language:	English
Thesis:	Zugl.: Berlin, Humboldt-Univ., Diss., 2012
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Cover; I Introduction; II Chapters; 1 Does Wagner''s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?; 1.1 Introduction - Fiscal sustainability in growing economies; 1.2 Fiscal sustainability and Wagner''s law; 1.2.1 Fiscal sustainability: general approach and testable hypothesis; 1.2.2 Wagner''s law: general approach and testable hypothesis; 1.2.3 Fiscal sustainability and Wagner''s law in a growing economy; 1.2.4 Fiscal sustainability and Wagner''s law in German data; 1.3 Empirical analyses: An application for German data; 1.3.1 Structural changes in fiscal regimes 1.3.2 Stationarity and cointegration analyses1.3.3 A dynamic and endogenous model; 1.3.4 Fiscal restrictions and estimation of the restricted models; 1.4 Conclusion; Appendix of chapter 1; 1. A A testable condition for fiscal sustainability; 1. B The fiscal sustainability literature for German data; 1. C Adequate measures; 1. D Time series properties; Bibliography; 2 The Timing and Responsiveness of Fiscal Policy in Germany; 2.1 Introduction and related literature; 2.2 A concept of the cyclicality of fiscal policy and data; 2.3 Benchmark results and time variation 2.3.1 Structural analyses based on time-invariant SVARs2.3.2 Time variation; 2.4 A time-varying parameter (TVP) VAR approach; 2.4.1 Structural analyses based on a time-varying SVAR; 2.5 Economic driving forces of fiscal policy responsiveness; 2.5.1 Identifying economic driving forces; 2.5.2 Variables, time series properties and estimation; 2.5.3 Estimation results; 2.6 Conclusion; Appendix of chapter 2; 2. A Results of comprehensive estimation approach; 2. B Additional plots of impulse responses; 2. C Structural shocks 2. D Driving forces: Time series properties and estimation results Bibliography; 3 Estimating Dynamic Tax Elasticities for German Data; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Dynamic tax revenue elasticities; 3.2.1 Conception and related literature; 3.2.2 Econometric set up - modeling dynamic elasticities; 3.3 Data; 3.3.1 Tax revenues in Germany; 3.3.2 The adequate base(s) for each tax category; 3.3.3 Accounting for tax reforms; 3.4 Time series properties; 3.5 Estimation; 3.6 Results; 3.6.1 Profit-related taxes; 3.6.2 Wage taxes; 3.6.3 Value-added taxes; 3.7 Conclusion; Appendix of chapter 3 3. A Results of stationarity tests3. B Results of cointegration tests; 3. C Results for VAT (disaggregated tax base); Bibliography; 4 Fiscal Policy under Sustainability Constraints; 4.1 Introduction and literature; 4.2 Fiscal long-run constraints - A modified fiscal sustainability condition; 4.3 Data; 4.4 Empirical model; 4.5 Identification; 4.6 Measurement of the effects of fiscal policy shocks; 4.7 Results; 4.8 Conclusion; Appendix of chapter 4; 4. A Estimation results and diagnostic checks; 4. B Weak exogeneity and causality structure; Bibliography; III Summary and Conclusions
ISBN:	978-3-8487-1092-8 ; 978-3-8452-5198-1 ; 978-3-8452-5198-1 ; 978-3-8487-1092-8
Other identifiers:	10.5771/9783845251981 [DOI]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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