Dynamic properties of the 1966 - 1971 Canadian spatial population system

This paper uses an extended Rogers model of multiregional demographic growth to characterize the 1966 - 1971 Canadian spatial population system, which is disaggregated simultaneously into two sexes, fourteen age groups, and eight regions. It is assumed that much foresight about the future of a spatial population system can be gained by studying the dynamic implications of a fixed matrix of empirically estimated demographic rates.The analysis reveals that during the period 1966 - 1971 the Canadian spatial population system had very strong growth potential, over 40% of which was due to foreign net immigration, and that the system's long-run redistributional trend is: (1) a continued dominance by Ontario; (2) a strong westward-shifting potential; (3) a drastic reduction in Quebec's competitiveness; (4) a substantial increase in the mean age of every regional subpopulation, except in the North; and (5) a switch from male to female dominance. It is also shown that the convergence toward the long-run distribution can be divided into two stages: first a quick convergence toward relatively smooth regional age profiles, and then a slow but persistent spatial convergence.