Eclipse : Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Ch 1. A Brief History of Economic Dominance -- Systemic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance -- Defining Dominance and Power -- Ch 2. Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance -- Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance -- Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List -- Measuring the Three Determinants -- Validating Economic Dominance -- Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance -- Results: Economic Dominance in the Past -- Ch 3. Quantifying Currency Dominance -- Definition -- Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency -- Short History -- What Determines Reserve Currency Status? -- Appendix 3A A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status -- Ch 4. Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity -- Convergence of the Previously Poor -- Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor -- Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics -- Results -- Caveat -- Back to History: Economics Catches Up with Demographics -- Conclusion -- Appendix 4A Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates -- Appendix 4B Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model -- Ch 5. Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance -- Economic Dominance in the Future -- The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi -- The Renminbi When the Chips Are Down -- Conclusion -- Appendix 5A Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance -- Ch. 6 A Historical Perspective on China's Distinctive Dominance -- Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the-Richest China Be Dominant? -- China's Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective -- Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective -- Ch 7. Guarding Against Rash Prophesying -- China's Growth: Repeating Mistakes? -- Looking Back -- Realism of Trade Projections -- Conclusion.