Eclipses and the Memory of Revolutions : Evidence from China

We study the historical roots of social unrest in China. In particular, we investigate whether the incidence of social unrest against local government officials under the Qing dynasty (1644-1912) has a persistent effect on the incidence of anti-government protests in present-day China. To generate plausibly exogenous variation in the incidence of past protests we exploit differences in the visibility and magnitude of solar eclipses across Chinese counties during the Qing dynasty period. In the Confucianism tradition, solar eclipses are considered a negative divine signal on the legitimacy of the ruler, and can thus facilitate the coordination of protest actions. We test this hypothesis using detailed data on the timing and location of anti-government rebellions extracted from local chronicles. We show that counties within the totality zone of an eclipse were significantly more likely to experience a rebellion in the eclipse year. We find that plausibly exogenous variation in past rebellions generated by the incidence of solar eclipses has a positive effect on the incidence of social protests in present-day China. Leaders of past rebellions were recorded in popular culture and celebrated in temples and memorials, favoring the transmission of the memory of their actions across generations. We show that the presence of such temples and memorials increases the persistent effect of past protests on current protests