ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR FORECASTING TRAFFIC ON CROATIAN MOTORWAYS

The basic objective of this scientific debate is to develop an econometric model for forecasting traffic on Croatian motorways. After many trial and errors procedures, two econometric models have been developed: one for the average annual daily traffic (Y=-2078,11-280,9GP+0,0012RV+0,695TA+4,129NE, r=0,85) and one for the average summer daily traffic (Y=7452-1097,55GP+0,00746RV+2,076TA- 9,5NE, r=0,91). In both models, the GDP was dismissed as a variable which directly affects the traffic on Croatian motorways. In both models gasoline prices(GP), the number of registered personal vehicles (RV), the number of tourist arrivals (TA) and the number of employees (NE) were selected as explanatory variables.