Economic assessment of the recreational value of ecosystems in Great Britain

In this paper we present a novel methodology to determine the annual value of recreational visit flows to different habitat types in Great Britain. We combine different empirical models to predict the spatial distributions of recreational value across Great Britain. The models use a combination of the latest and most extensive recreation survey in England, detailed spatial data, and extensive literature review. These data combine to form an input dataset with over four million unique observations. Aimed at planning for recreational demand at a national-level across mixed habitats, the estimated model is applied to the six UK National Ecosystem Assessment scenarios for land cover in 2060. Final predictions are generated nationally at a range of spatial scales, providing a comprehensive assessment of the spatial diversity of present and future recreation value. While our methodology is subject to a few shortcomings, it offers a new and spatially sensitive tool for modelling open-access recreation demand that can be applied to recreation planning and environmental decision-making at any desired spatial unit.