Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Turkish Economy: Selected Results from CGE Applications

This study quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines a static regional and a dynamic national economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until late 2030s. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to design and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected, and irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Together, this causes significant decline in agricultural production and national welfare. Part of agriculture’s decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey’s food trade balance.