Economic implications of Turkish EU membership: the advantages of tying one’s hands

This paper is a stock-taking exercise that brings together existing findings and new insights on the potential costs and benefits of EU membership for both Turkey and the EU. As far as Turkey is concerned, we focus on the costs and benefits of EU membership that are likely to result from compliance with the so-called EU conditionality. As far as EU is concerned, we focus on the costs and benefits associated with budgetary contributions and migration. Overall, we conclude that the impact of membership is likely to be positive for both parties, but the risks and returns are associated. In other words, Turkey stands to gain more than the EU but it is also the party that will be faced with higher adjustment costs.