Efectos del ciclo económico en EE. UU. sobre la producción y el empleo en México

The paper examines the empirical regularities between the cyclical component of U.S. output and variables of output and employment in Mexico. Based on these regularities, it explores the effects of the current U.S. recession on the Mexican economy. The findings suggest that both output and employment in Mexico are pro-cyclical relative to U.S. output. Regarding the current recession, the fall in Mexico’s output gap might be similar to the fall registered during the Tequila crisis, whereas the increase in the unemployment rate gap might be relatively smaller. In terms of the length of recovery, it would take approximately five and four years for output and the unemployment rate in Mexico to return to its trend, respectively.