Effects of International Food Price Shocks on Political Institutions in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from an International Food Net-Export Price Index

We examine the effects of variations in the international food prices on political institutions in low-income countries. Our empirical analysis exploits that the economic impact of changes in the international food prices differs across countries depending on whether countries are net food importers or exporters. We construct an international food net-export price index that captures this heterogeneity. Our panel fixed effects analysis yields that in low-income countries within-country variations in the international food net-export price index are significantly negatively related to democratic institutions. We further explore the mechanisms driving this relationship along the economic and the conflict dimensions.