EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINED GROWTH IN CUBA. THE EFFECTS OF COMERCIAL REGIMES SINCE 1960.

This paper seeks to investigate whether the balance of payments has been a key determinant of the Cuban long-term economic growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning over the period 1960 to 2004. We focus here on built the impact of terms of trade movements into a specification of Thirlwall’s hypothesis. Cointegration multivariate tests for non-stationary series reveal that economic growth, exports of goods and services and terms of trade are driven by a common stochastic trend and finding support for an economic growth path constrained by the country own external demand position