End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention.