Energy from biomass: linkages between the energy and the agricultural sector in the EU until 2050

Over the last decades traditional energy sources are increasingly replaced by energy from biomass and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Assessing the efficiency of bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationship between agricultural and energy markets. This study analyzes the impacts of two alternative EU greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios on the utilization of biomass for energy production and the price of agricultural products. To this end, we combine the energy system model TIMES PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM. We establish a consistent interface between the models and run them in an iterative procedure where TIMES PanEU represents the demand side for energy crops and ESIM their supply side. According to our results, an extension of the mandatory reduction of emissions has strong biomass demand effects and affects the agricultural sector in its entirety. Due to the increased demand for energy crops, average crop prices in the EU increase by an estimated 30 percentage points in 2050. The expanded area use for production of energy crops inside the EU27 turns the EU from being a net exporter to a net importer for many important agricultural commodities.