Epa's Special Allowance Reserve Auction : A Comparison between Market-Based and Survey-Based Price Forecasts

This paper compares the price forecasts of auction market participants against survey respondents based on EPA's emerging Special Allowance Reserve auction conducted at the Chicago Board of Trade. The results of the paper suggest that survey-based price forecasts have tended to be quot;in the moneyquot; in relation to successful auction market bids. I document this finding for actual bidding agents and industrial survey respondents, and suggest why this finding supports the argument that Special Allowance Reserve auctions have informational value and help in the organization of the emerging emission allowance market