Estimates of uncertainty around Australian budget forecasts
In this article, past forecast errors are used to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget. JEL classification numbers: E17, H68. Keywords: Confidence intervals, forecast errors, government budget, nominal GDP, real GDP, treasury, uncertainty.
Year of publication: |
2013
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Authors: | Clark, John ; Gibbons, Caroline ; Morrissey, Susan ; Pooley, Joshua ; Pye, Emily ; Wilcox, Rhett ; Willard, Luke |
Published in: |
OECD Journal on Budgeting. - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE), ISSN 1681-2336. - Vol. 13.2013, 3, p. 1-19
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Publisher: |
Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE) |
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