Estimating English Wheat Production in the Industrial Revolution

Wheat was the single most important product of the British economy during the Industrial Revolution, being both the largest component of national income and the primary determinant of caloric intake. This paper offers new estimates of annual wheat production during industrialisation. Whereas other researchers infer wheat production indirectly from demand equations, we estimate production directly from output equations. Our estimates are based on a new time series model of wheat yields, encompassing both environmental and technological variables. We trace the impact of war and population growth on wheat yields, mediated through changes in the economic incentives for wheat cultivation. We test the accuracy of our new wheat output series by modelling the market price of wheat in England between 1700 and 1825.