Estimating Outlays for Unemployment Compensation Programs: Technical Paper No. 1

The unemployment insurance system has undergone a number of changes in recent years. These changes, combined with the variability in the unemployment rate, make outlay projections of the various programs a complex task. In order to estimate program outlays, a statistical analysis of the basic underlying relationships within the unemployment insurance system has been developed. This statistical analysis forms the base of the projetion model utilized by the Congressional Budget Office. The first two parts of this paper describe the major parameters and programs of the unemployment insurance system, while the third section discusses the CBO model for estimating unemployment insurance outlays.