Estimating the economy-wide rebound effect using empirically identified structural vector autoregressions
Stephan B. Bruns, Alessio Moneta, David I. Stern
The size of the economy-wide rebound effect is crucial for estimating the contribution that energy efficiency improvements can make to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and for understanding the drivers of energy use. Existing estimates, which vary widely, are based on computable general equilibrium models or partial equilibrium econometric estimates. The former depend on many a priori assumptions and the parameter values adopted, and the latter do not include all mechanisms that might increase or reduce the rebound and mostly do not credibly identify the rebound effect. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we identify the dynamic causal impact of structural shocks, including an energy efficiency shock, applying identification methods developed in machine learning. In this manner, we are able to estimate the rebound effect with a minimum of a priori assumptions. We apply the SVAR to U.S. monthly and quarterly data, finding that after four years rebound is around 100%. This implies that policies to encourage cost-reducing energy efficiency innovation are not likely to significantly reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the long run.
Year of publication: |
[2019]
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Authors: | Bruns, Stephan B. ; Moneta, Alessio ; Stern, David I. |
Publisher: |
Pisa, Italy : LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna |
Subject: | Energy efficiency | Rebound effect | Structural VAR | Impulse response functions | Independent component analysis | VAR-Modell | VAR model | Energieeinsparung | Energy conservation | Schätzung | Estimation | Energiekonsum | Energy consumption | Wirkungsanalyse | Impact assessment | Schätztheorie | Estimation theory |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) Illustrationen |
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Series: | LEM working paper series. - Pisa : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 2284-0400, ZDB-ID 2436330-3. - Vol. 2019, 27 (August 2019) |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Other identifiers: | hdl:10419/228125 [Handle] |
Classification: | C32 - Time-Series Models ; Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012053107