ESTIMATING THE EXPECTED UNEMPLOYMENT AS A FUNCTION OF THE SPEED OF RESTRUCTURING – THE CASE OF ROMANIA

The paper presents an econometric estimation for the Aghion and Blanchard (1994) model of the speed of transition for the case of Romania. All the econometric estimations were done by means of three stochastic optimization algorithms (RGS, RSGBOOT and SA), after preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were performed on each particular function involved. The results confirm that in fact an attempt to real privatization started no sooner than 1997. The paper ends with an estimation of the expected inflation, as function of the speed of restructuring, in the NAIRU framework.