Estimating the Mean and Variance of Subjective Distributions in PERT and Decision Analysis
The original PERT formulae [5] employ the mode and endpoints to estimate the mean and standard deviation of subjective probability distributions. Though widely-used, they have met with criticism for their inaccuracy, and for their being limited to the beta distribution when there is no a priori reason why the distribution should be beta ([4], [6]). This note presents alternative, accurate and relatively distribution-free formulae for estimating the means and standard deviations of subjective probability distributions.
Year of publication: |
1975
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Authors: | Perry, C. ; Greig, I. D. |
Published in: |
Management Science. - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS, ISSN 0025-1909. - Vol. 21.1975, 12, p. 1477-1480
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Publisher: |
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS |
Saved in:
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