“Ethical Tourism” or Self-Preservation? An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Political Violence on Tourism in Egypt in the 1990s

This paper uses a new database of political violence in Egypt to study the effects of political violence on the monthly arrival of tourists from the EU and the US in Egypt in the 1990s. We use time series analysis to study the impact of different aspects of political violence and counter-violence. We find that both US and EU tourists respond negatively to attacks on tourists, but do not appear to be influenced by casualties arising in confrontations between domestic groups. However, European tourists are sensitive to the counter-violence measures implemented by the Egyptian government. There is also evidence of tourism in Egypt being affected by the Israeli / Palestinian conflict, with arrivals of US tourists into Egypt rising when fatalities in Israel increase, while European tourists reduce their demand for Egyptian holidays.