Etude empirique de la relation entre le système monétaire et financier et la croissance économique

The problem of the relationship between the financial system, and its effects, and economic growth remains a controversial issue. It is about a debate between the various economic trends. The objective of this thesis is to shed light on the nature of that relationship. To achieve this goal, we have considered the financial system with its components (the banking system, including the central bank and the stock exchange) and economic growth represented by the rate of GDP growth, investment and total factor productivity. To accomplish this task, we use a Solow economic growth model (human capital augmented). Our sample data covers 48 countries (24 OECD and 24 developing). The analysis period extends from 1960 to 2003. Through various econometric approaches we performed a multimethod study. We conducted an analysis of Granger causality, cross-sectional analysis, an analysis of cointegration (the study of long-term effects). Finally we tested our model with the GMM method applied to a system of equations on panel data. The results confirm the existence of causality from the financial system to economic growth. Causality in the opposite direction also exists in the case of some countries. Bidirectional causality exists in the case of few coutries, but more rarely. On another level, the results confirm, in part (it depends on country and level of financial development), the positive effect of the financial system on economic growth, investment and total factor productivity. In some countries, these effects are negative and statistically significant. For some countries these effetcs are completely absent.