European scenarios of CO2 infrastructure investment until 2050 : CO2-enhanced oil recovery keeps the mirage alive

Based on a critical review of the current state of the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology, this paper analyzes the layout and costs of a potential CO2 infrastructure in Europe at the horizon of 2050. We apply the mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod to compute a CCTS infrastructure network for Europe, examining the effects of different CO2 price paths with different regional focuses. Scenarios assuming low CO2 certificate prices lead to hardly any CCTS development in Europe. The iron and steel sector starts deployment as soon as the CO2 certificate price exceeds 50 €/tCO2. The cement sector starts investing at a threshold of 75 €/tCO2, followed by the electricity sector when prices exceed 100 €/tCO2. Results on the degree of deployment of CCTS are found to be more sensitive to variable cost of CO2 capture than to investment costs. Additional revenues from using the CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in the North Sea would lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS, independent of the CO2 certificate price; this case may become especially relevant for the UK, Norway and the Netherlands. On the downside, scattered CCTS deployment increases unit cost of transport and storage infrastructure by 30% and more.