European Trade and Welfare after `1992'

This paper reviews estimates of the effects of `1992' on international trade and welfare, and the policy implications of those estimates. It surveys earlier research starting with the Cecchini Report of 1988 and then summarizes some new results based on general equilibrium modelling with imperfectly competitive industries. These suggest significant gains to integration. Other work surveyed suggests that in some industries, however, integration could be harmful, that taxing EC industry might be beneficial and that current estimates of `1992' might be based on seriously overestimated price elasticities.