Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe : a note

Carsten Croonenbroeck; Georg Stadtmann

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a nai͏̈ve reference model. Comparisons show that the nai͏̈ve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low. -- Phillips Curve ; Forecasting ; Europe ; RMSE

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Croonenbroeck, Carsten ; Stadtmann, Georg
Publisher:	Frankfurt, Oder : Europa-Univ. Viadrina, Dep. of Business Administration and Economics
Subject:	Inflation \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Phillips-Kurve \| Phillips curve \| Eurozone \| Euro area

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 8 S., 390,68 KB) graph. Darst.
Series:	Discussion papers / Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften. - Frankfurt, Oder : Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), ISSN 2699-9250, ZDB-ID 2202229-6. - Vol. 329
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/67114 [Handle]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009671223