Evaluating poverty duration and transition:A spell-approach to rural China

This article uses a discrete-time multivariate duration model to study poverty transition in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The analysis identifies nonlinear negative duration-dependence for both exit and re-entry rates of poverty. There is significant difference in hazard rates of exit and reentry associated with geographic location and educational level of households, but less related to gender, occupation or ethnic background of household head. The factors facilitating households’ ending a poverty spell are found to be education, land ownership, asset accumulation, health insurance and out-migration, while larger family size and dependence ratio may reduce the chance of exit. This article is forthcoming in Applied Economics Letters, 2011.