"The promotion of further vocational training for unemployed persons according to SGB III was supplemented by the European Social Fund (ESF) from the beginning of 2000 to autumn 2008. 80 per cent of the total of 116,000 promoted cases are allocated to the years 2000 to 2002. An impact analysis is presented in this report covering the population participating in these years. Outcomes subsequent to participation are measured, firstly, by the fact whether participants entered into employment at all and, secondly, by transition into non-subsidized employment liable to social security. Unemployed non-participants and participants without additional ESF-funding serve as comparison groups. Separate analyses were run for subgroups where possible (West/East Germans, non-recipients of benefits according to SGB III, male/female participants and, in an excursus, migrants with and without additional language courses). The analysis is empirically based on the longitudinal data from representative panel surveys of ESF-funded participants and comparison groups whose samples were drawn on the basis of exact pre-matching with process-produced data. The method of event history analysis was applied throughout the study (partly supplemented by propensity score matching, which, however, can estimate status probabilities but not probabilities of transition). First of all, transition rates for the overall observation period of six years were compared (Kaplan-Meier estimator). In the following the effect of participation was estimated in a Cox regression, taking into account further explanatory factors (such as personal characteristics, regional and program-related heterogeneity, job-seekers' behaviour). Since, other than earlier studies, this analysis was conducted with longitudinal survey data using more elaborate methods, the results of preliminary findings are obsolete now. In contrast to earlier findings, a clearly positive effect of supplementary ESF-funding on individual benefits can be found. Compared to unemployed non-participants, participants supported by the ESF were more successful on the labour market in the medium and long run (especially participants in West Germany and the group of non-recipients of statutory benefits). With reference to further vocational training without ESF-funding, the results point to positive outcomes as well." (Authors' abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
