Evolution of the Global Distribution of Carbon Dioxide: A Finite Mixture Analysis

Economists and environmental policymakers have recently begun advocating a bottom-up approach to climate change mitigation, focusing on reduction targets for groups of nations, rather than large scale global policies. We advance this discussion by taking a quantitative perspective, focusing on econometric identification of groups of countries that have statistically similar distributions of carbon emissions using a broad range of finite mixture models. Nearly all of our results yield a consistent pattern: after 1980, there are two distinct emissions distributions, and that these distributions continue to evolve over time. We provide a rigorous analysis of these distributional differences along several important dimensions: polarization, mobility, and volatility. We discuss how this robust quantitative evidence may aid policymakers in forging a heterogeneous carbon abatement policy.