Execution of the Federal Budget In January-April 2020 : Budget Surplus Is Due to Non-Tax Revenues Growth

We analyze dynamic of budget receipts, federal budget expenditures and assets in the National Wealth Fund for January-April 2020. Over the period, the federal budget was executed with a surplus, however one should remember that oil and gas revenues reflect the changes on the market the same month and the plunge in oil prices was offset by the currency sale taken from the NWF and non-oil and gas revenues lag behind in their reaction towards the change in the tax base by a quarter. Provided that retail sales and industrial output declined against the previous months of the corresponding period of 2019, one should project decline in proceeds from VAT and income tax in Q2 and Q3 2020