Exits from the Disability Insurance Rolls : Estimates from a Competing-Risks Model

This article explores the causes of growth in the number of disabled workers on the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) rolls from 1980 through 2010 by estimating the probability of a DI beneficiary's program exit because of recovery, death, or conversion to retired-worker beneficiary. The author uses Social Security administrative data and a competing-risks model to estimate DI exit probabilities by cause and beneficiary sex, age, and disability type. Cumulative exit probabilities are calculated for beneficiaries over their first 9 years on the DI rolls. The author also examines possible changes over time by comparing outcomes for the 1980s with those for the 1990s