Experimental Study of Forward and Spot Markets: Contract Failure as a Contributing Factor of Vertical Integration

A probability of a partner not fulfilling his forward contract obligations (contract failure) increases in a transition economy. This project investigates the process of price and quantity discovery in a laboratory setting when there is (1) an endogenous choice between forward and spot market institutions and vertical integration; and (2) a certain probability of forward contract failure. The results suggest that in some cases a contract failure creates incentives to integration. To develop a system, which efficiently allocates resources, the state policy should be oriented toward strengthening the legal system and developing of the spot market, which may act like an insurance mechanism for the failed forward trades