Export or domestic-led growth in Asia?

In recent years, some developing Asian countries claim to have started shifting emphasis from export-led to domestic-demand-led growth policies with a view to achieving a more balanced growth strategy. This paper evaluates empirically how far this shift has gone. The evaluation - based on an analysis of five countries - finds no evidence that the period 1993–2003 has been marked by such a shift at the expense of a decline in net exports. It also finds that periods of expansionary domestic demand and deteriorating net exports signaled an ensuing crisis. This should serve as an early warning system.