Extending the Reserve Bank’s macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate

The exchange rate matters a lot in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank uses several different models, each imprecise, to analyse it. This note focuses on just one of those approaches: the macro-balance model of the exchange rate. We use that model to estimate the exchange rate which, if sustained, would stabilise at around current levels the negative net international investment position (as a percentage of GDP). The sensitivity of the model estimates to some of the key assumptions is illustrated.