External Shocks and Structural Adjustments : A Dutch Disease Dynamic Analysis

This paper develops a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of Dutch Disease for an oil-exporting small open economy. Agricultural, manufacturing and nontradable goods are distinguished. Sectoral capital stock adjusts gradually. Spiral or monotone adjustment paths occur depending on the typology of the economy. A more developed oil exporter could experience spiral adjustments; the short-run and long-run sectoral effects of an oil shock are qualitatively different. A less developed oil exporter would experience monotone adjustments; the short-run and long-run sectoral effects of an oil shock are qualitatively similar. The model developed can be applied to any "small" open economy adjusting to external revenues and terms of trade shocks.