FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF AGRICULTURAL REAL ESTATE DEBT

A market share analysis is undertaken to determine the contribution of the size of market effect, the distribution effect, and the competitive effect, the distribution effect, and the competitive effect to gains for the five major farm real estate lenders. Results are used as a basis for selection of variables for a demand-supply analysis. Separate demand and supply equations for new farm real estate debt over the 1951-81 period are estimated by three-stage least squares for three major lending groups. The results are used as a basis for simulation of Federal Land Bank supply response to selected policy changes. If current market conditions continue through 1990, FLB market share is expected to decrease 12.34 percent over the 1987-90 period. Higher FLB interest rates would decrease FLB new loans sharply.