"Not So Fast: Comments on 'Estimates of Performance and Cost for Boost Phase Intercept' presented to the Marshall Institute’s Washington Roundtable on Science and Public Policy by Greg Canavan on 24 September 2004"

Dr. Greg Canavan’s paper, “Estimates of Performance and Cost for Boost PhaseIntercept,” [http://www.marshall.org/article.php?id=262] examines some implications ofconstellation size and interceptor cost and weight for the total costs and feasibility of aspace-based boost-phase interceptor (SBI) system. The paper argues, in general, that a“concentrated” system, that is, one that is tailored to defend against missiles launchedfrom a small geographic area, can be substantially cheaper than is currently believed.North Korea might be considered “small.” The paper states that reductions in expectedcost come about from a combination of lower estimates of SBIs mass, lower estimates ofindividual satellite cost, and a constellation that requires fewer interceptors because itcovers only a restricted range of latitudes.We believe that mass and cost estimates are wrong and the simple model ofsatellite coverage exaggerates the effect of concentration. All the errors together lead toan extreme underestimation of the cost. The paper’s SBI masses are based on unprovenand very optimistic estimates of kill vehicle masses; its per satellite costs are based onunrealistic learning curve performance; and a more accurate model of satellite orbitsshows that the benefits of concentration are somewhat smaller than the paper’s simplemodel suggests.