Fertility Transition and Threshold Estimation: A District - Level Analysis in India

This article focusses on issues relating to fertility transition and related socio-economic variables. The observed differential in fertility between different states, as determined by the cluster-cum-discriminant analysis,by using district-level data, clearly establishes the link between fertility change and social backwardness of women, especially in respect of female education and age at marriage. The economic variables, on the other hand, are found to be less important for the existing fertility differential between states. The findings suggest that the threshold of female literacy for a faster fertility decline in India is about 43 per cent; once that level is achieved, fertility rate will decline faster towards the stability of the population.