Financial Development as an Instrument of Economic Growth in India : Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This paper tries to trace the relationship between finance and growth. There are several indicators which represent the degree of financial intermediation such as M3, Real Rate of Interest (RR) and economic growth. In this paper, we have used Time-series methodology such as Unit Root (ADF and Phillips-Perron Tests), Cointegration (developed by Johansen and Juselius), and Granger Pairwise causality. We have checked the presence of unit roots in the data, and all the three variables — Financial Development, RR and Growth Rate — are found to be integrated at first difference. Secondly, Johansen cointegration test results confirm the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Finally, the Granger causality supports the hypothesis of ‘Finance-led Growth' indicating that the finance is a leading sector in India and is poised for development. This result supports the supply-leading hypothesis for Indian economy for the sample period. These findings have important implications for the conduct of economic policies in India