Financial Fragility and Mexico's 1994 Peso Crisis : An Event-Window Analysis of Market-Valuation Effects

Persistent cycles of devaluation, debt repudiation, and financial crisis have been recurrent themes in Latin America and elsewhere. This study focuses on one such event, namely, the Mexican peso devaluation, debt, and financial-sector crisis of 1994-95. This paper utilizes an event-study framework, with daily stock market data, to document financial market responses to the unfolding crisis. In particular, we find that the devaluation itself was viewed as relatively benighn by market participants. The results also show little evidence that investors anticipated the peso devaluation, the declining reserve levels of Mexico's central bank, and the increasing sovereign default risk of Mexico. However, the results suggest that the equity markets did respond positively to remedial actions taken by governmental authorities, such as the Clinton bailout plan