Financial frictions, trends, and the great recession

We study the causes behind the shift in the level of U.S. GDP following the Great Recession. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous productivity à la Romer and a financial friction à la Kiyotaki–Moore. Adverse financial disturbances during the recession and the lack of strong tailwinds post-crisis resulted in a severe contraction and the downward shift in the economy’s trend. Had financial conditions remained stable during the crisis, the economy would have grown at its average growth rate. From a historical perspective, the Great Recession was unique because of the size and persistence of adverse shocks, and the lackluster performance of favorable shocks since 2010.