Firm-specific risk, managerial certainty and optimism

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on investor reactions to unanticipated changes in income, and whether those reactions can be mitigated by managerial discussion. The authors investigate how top-management team certainty and optimism during post-earnings announcement conference calls can serve as corrective actions and add back firm value in times of unexpected changes in firm-specific risk. Design/methodology/approach – The research question is tested empirically in the context of large, publicly traded, US firms’ quarterly earnings announcements, and their subsequent post-earnings announcement conference calls. The authors use the advanced content analysis software DICTION to measure the levels of managerial certainty and optimism displayed during post-earnings announcement conference calls, and event-study methodology to measure investors’ reactions. Findings – Results indicate that earnings surprises are negatively associated with firm value, but that this relationship is mitigated positively by displays of managerial certainty and optimism during post-earnings announcement conference calls. Originality/value – This work uses an innovative research design to study top-management team rhetoric in post-earnings announcement conference calls, and how specific discussions mitigate investors’ negative reactions to increases in firm-specific risk. The study highlights the importance of top-management team certainty and optimism for value creation in times of change in firm-specific risk, and the importance of rhetoric as a tool for corrective action.