Fluctuations conjoncturelles et croissance tendancielle de l’économie Marocaine

This paper estimates the smoothed-GDP of Moroccan economy since 1958. We use advanced techniques, as in the public and private international organizations, such the Hodrick-smoothing Presscott and Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. The results identified and quantified, in addition to an economic, monetary and fiscal reading-grids greatly expanded around six business cycles. These cycles show significant effects of the government policy and the climate hazards. This latter seems to amplify the extent of the cycles. The GDP-Cycles, apart the agricultural sector, appear to be relatively more sensitive to the economic conjuncture and the international environment especially of the main partners.