Forecast of Electricity Generation in a Wave Power Plant : The Mutriku Case Study

Wave energy research is a reality in many parts of the world. It is essential for any wave power plant at the commercializing stage to accurately model and forecast its production to ensure efficient trading in the daily wholesale electricity market. Altogether, a reliable forecast is a required step for the establishment of wave energy as a sustainable and viable source of electricity. We propose models whose coefficients adapt to the variation of ocean con- ditions and apply them to estimate and forecast the electricity production of two oscillating wave converters from the Mutriku Wave Power Plant dur- ing 2018. After a statistical analysis of their forecast and comparison with the random walk process, we recommend a model whose coefficients change according to the significant wave height, with wave energy flux as the main exogenous variable