Forecasting German Population Development with Monte-Carlo Methods: Further Evidence Based on a Disaggregate Model
The Following Paper Extends the Idea of Monte-Carlo Simulation to the Analysis of Future Population Development in the German Context. in a Disaggregate Model We Distinguish Among German and Other Ethnic Groups Because of Their Different Fertility Rates, and According to Sex and Age. the Results for the Year 2030 Suggest a Decrease of Total Population by One Third Which Is Very Stable Against Credible Variations of Birth Rates.
Year of publication: |
1987
|
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Authors: | Blum, U. |
Institutions: | Département de Sciences Économiques, Université de Montréal |
Subject: | Polation Forecasts | Simulation |
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