Forecasting India’s Merchandise Exports Amid COVID-19 Pandemic : A Detailed Assessment of Highly Concentrated/ Dependent Export Basket & Trade in COVID Related Products

The current study focuses on India's impressive merchandise export performance during the pandemic, as well as the country's performance in COVID-19-related products. As per the forecasting performed by employing ARIMA model. It was found that India’s export earning in FY 2021-22 is in-fact going to surpass US $ 400 billion and the same holds true for the subsequent year. However, India’s exports when investigated at detailed HS 6-digit level revealed a high degree of dependence on few product lines in terms of export earnings. In 2020 five products explained about 25% of India's total export revenue spread across four sectors i.e., petroleum, gems & jewellery, drugs & pharma and agriculture. A higher degree of dependence was observed under COVID-19 related products, where 74% of India’s export revenue came from only one product. In COVID-19 related products, in 2020, India was a net importer in two categories i.e., i) COVID-19 disinfectants etc. ii) COVID-19 vaccines, test kits, Instruments etc, and a net exporter in iii) Covid-19 Medical Supplies. This high degree of concentration in terms of export revenue might became an impediment in sustaining an upward moving export trajectory and, more importantly advancing up in the GVCs