Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast.

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Pierdzioch, Christian ; Rülke, Jan-Christoph ; Stadtmann, Georg
Institutions:	Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)
Subject:	Metal prices \| Forecasting \| Forecaster (anti-)herding

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Discussion Papers. - ISSN 1860-0921.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number 325
Classification:	G17 - Financial Forecasting ; C33 - Models with Panel Data ; L61 - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010984048