Forecasting USDTRY rate by ARIMA method
This paper conducts a USDTRY rate forecast by ARIMA method using 3,069 daily observations between the dates of 3 January 2005 and 8 March 2017 and generates both long-term and short-term models. Existing works related to USDTRY rate forecast using ARIMA method generate static models, and none of them conduct multi-step prediction or out of sample fit. The work described in this paper, however, applies dynamic model generation and conducts multi-step ahead prediction for out of sample observations. In forecasts performed in this work for USDTRY rate, the short-term ARIMAs outperform the long-term ARIMAs in predicting accuracy. Specifically, for the short-term ARIMAs appropriate specification is raised as ARIMA (2,1,0); on the other hand, for the long-term ARIMAs, the best order is emerged as ARIMA (0,1,1).
Year of publication: |
2017
|
---|---|
Authors: | Yıldıran, Cenk Ufuk ; Fettahoæglu, Abdurrahman |
Published in: |
Cogent Economics & Finance. - Abingdon : Taylor & Francis, ISSN 2332-2039. - Vol. 5.2017, 1, p. 1-11
|
Publisher: |
Abingdon : Taylor & Francis |
Subject: | ARIMA | USDTRY | forecast |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by subject
-
Forecasting USDTRY rate by ARIMA method
Yıldıran, Cenk Ufuk, (2017)
-
Hassani, Hossein, (2015)
-
Kadam, Sanjeev, (2023)
- More ...
Similar items by person
-
Forecasting USDTRY rate by ARIMA method
Yıldıran, Cenk Ufuk, (2017)
- More ...