Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components? : [... presented at the 8th Bundesbank spring conference (Mai 2006) on "New Developments in Economic Forecasting"]

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range of prior choices. Moreover, we study the asymptotic properties of the Bayesian regression under Gaussian prior under the assumption that data are quasi collinear to establish a criterion for setting parameters in a large cross-section